In one of our lastest articles, we showed how period fertility — the snapshot of how many children women are expected to have in a given year — has been falling across Europe. In Denmark, the total fertility rate dropped to just 1.466 (1.5) children per woman in 2024, one of the lowest levels on record (see Statistics Denmark for fertility: dst.dk/fertilitet).
But this number does not mean Danish women will only end up with 1.5 children. The honest answer is: “We don’t really know”. When we see sudden drop (or increase) in time series like this, we know from experience that this may be a temporary shift, rather than a permanent change. When many women postpone childbearing, the annual rate drops — even though they may still go on to have more children later, but we cannot be sure.
That’s why we also have to look at cohort fertility — how many children women actually have over their lifetime. This longer-term measure shows the completed family size, and projections for Denmark’s most recent cohorts point to about 1.7 children per woman (see Statistics Denmark’s report (in Danish): Om fremskrivningens fertilitetskomponent. As a prediction, it may change, but it is the best we have now.
What the data shows
The latest projections from Statistics Denmark (2025) confirm the downward trend:
- Women born in the 1950s and 1960s completed their childbearing years with about 2.0 children per woman.
- For women born in the 1970s to early 1990s, expectations have been revised downward — from 1.88 to just 1.69 children per woman (Projection 2023 and Projection 2024 in the graph below).
- Meanwhile, the period fertility rate in 2024 was 1.466 children per woman — but lifetime fertility (cohort) is projected closer to 1.7.
So while period fertility highlights today’s challenges, cohort fertility reveals the longer-term story: family sizes in Denmark are shrinking, but they remain somewhat larger than what the snapshot 1.466 suggests.
Cohorte-fertility
Why it matters
Declining fertility has wide-ranging implications for Denmark:
- Population size and age structure: Smaller birth cohorts and longer life expectancy lead to an aging population.
- Fiscal sustainability: Pensions, healthcare, eldercare systems are under growing pressure as dependency ratios rise.
- Policy dilemmas: Should society try to raise fertility via incentives, or adapt to a future of smaller generations?
Cohort fertility The average number of children actually born to women in a given birth cohort over their lifetime.
Period fertility (TFR)A snapshot measure — how many children women would have if current age-specific birth rates stayed constant. Sensitive to timing of births
The bigger picture
Period fertility tells us what is happening right now. Cohort fertility shows us what really happens over a life. Together, the message is crystal clear: in Denmark, as in much of Europe, each new generation of women is likely to have fewer children than the last. And we don’t know if this trend continues to go downwards.
💬 What do you think? Should Nordic societies adapt to smaller families — or work actively to reverse the trend?
#Demography #CohortFertility #PopulationTrends #NordicInsights #Denmark #SustainableSociety
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