Nordregio has just published State of the Nordic Region 2026 – report we at Nordic Insights value a lot (and have actually co-authored in our previous lives). In this years edition the main focus is on demograpy, labour market and economy.
It is a careful, data-driven account but when the data points are read together, a more concerning picture emerges.
The Nordic region is not developing evenly.
Population growth is increasingly concentrated in cities and regional centres. Many rural and peripheral areas are either standing still or losing people.
Fewer children, smaller generations
At the same time, fertility has fallen to historically low levels across all Nordic countries. Fewer children are being born, and smaller cohorts are now entering working age. This is particularly visible in rural areas, where the dynamic can become self-reinforcing: fewer children lead to school closures, which in turn makes it harder for families to stay or move in.
Fertility has fallen to historically low levels across the Nordic region. In 2024, total fertility rates ranged from 1.25 in Finland to around 1.4–1.5 in Denmark, Norway and Sweden – all well below replacement level.
The number of births has dropped to around 258,000 in 2024, a 17% decline since 2010.
At the same time, childlessness is increasing. Among men aged 45, the share without children has risen to 20–30% across Nordic countries.
Ageing populations challenge welfare and labour supply
The population is also getting older. The share of people aged 80+ is rising steadily, shifting the balance between those working and those relying on public services. Again, this tends to happen earlier and more sharply in rural regions.
The share of people aged 80+ is expected to rise from 6% today to 9% by 2045.
In some countries, the demographic balance has already shifted significantly. In Finland, for example, the old-age dependency ratio has increased from 22 to 42 since 1990.
This changes the balance between those working and those relying on welfare systems – especially in rural areas, where ageing is more pronounced.
None of this is new in isolation. What stands out is how these trends combine over time—creating sustained growth in some places and sustained decline in others.
Migration keeps the system going – but adds pressure
Migration plays an important role in holding the system together. It supports population growth and contributes to the labour force that underpins both economic activity and welfare systems. At the same time, it creates pressure on housing, services and integration systems. Where integration is weak, this can translate into social and political tensions. These pressures, too, are unevenly distributed.
Population growth in the Nordic region is now largely driven by migration. Towards 2045, net migration is expected to account for +7.1% population growth, while natural population change is projected to be negative (-0.8%).
In several Nordic countries, the political map increasingly reflects these territorial differences. Support for nationalist and anti-immigration parties tends to be strongest in regions experiencing population decline and structural change.
The report itself remains analytical and cautious but it provides a clear empirical backdrop: the Nordic region remains comparable across countries—but internally, it is becoming more uneven.
If you have a moment over the Easter break, State of the Nordic Region 2026 is well worth a read. It offers a solid, data-driven understanding of where the Nordics are heading – and why it matters.
Happy Easter 🐣
Torfi & Ulla Nordic Insights
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