Between Willpower and Pharma – What’s Driving the Numbers?

Obesity on the rise

Worldwide adult obesity has more than doubled since 1990, and adolescent obesity has quadrupled. The Nordics are no exception of this trend but there are notable differences between the countries.

Iceland’s Obesity Surge – From Health Leader to Risk Zone

Iceland, once considered among the healthiest countries in the world, is experiencing a steady increase in adult obesity. In 2022, 21.2% of the population aged 18+ were classified as obese — higher than in Norway, Sweden, and Italy. This marks a notable shift from earlier decades and may reflect changes in diet, physical activity, and broader lifestyle factors. The World Health Organization recommends intensified prevention efforts when prevalence exceeds 20%, suggesting that Iceland may benefit from renewed focus on public health interventions and cross-sector collaboration to address the underlying drivers.

📊 About the Data: The data stems from WHO Global Health Observatory and shows the age-standardized prevalence of obesity among adults aged 18 and older. Obesity is defined as having a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or higher. The figures are modelled estimates based on national surveys, adjusted for comparability across countries and over time.

Obesity in the United States – Highest Rates, but New Tools Emerging

The United States continues to report the highest adult obesity prevalence among the countries included, reaching 42% in 2022. The long-term trend shows a consistent increase since 1990. However, the recent uptake of medical treatments such as Wegovy and Ozempic introduces new dynamics. These drugs are gaining wide use and could impact future prevalence, although long-term population-level effects are still uncertain.

Denmark and Sweden – Signs of Stabilizing Obesity Rates

Denmark (13.3%) and Sweden (15.3%) currently report the lowest adult obesity rates among the observed countries. More notably, both appear to show early signs of stabilization after decades of gradual increase. While the causes are likely multifactorial — including public health efforts, social norms, and generational shifts — these developments stand out in a global landscape where most countries continue to see rising trends.

Medical Solutions or Behaviour Change – What Will Bend the Curve?

The 2022 data shows clear contrasts: rising rates in Iceland, stabilization in parts of the Nordics, and medical intervention gaining ground in the U.S. Different countries are taking different paths — some through treatment, others through prevention.

The key question now is whether any of these approaches will lead to lasting change. The curve has started to shift in some places. What comes next will be important to watch.